Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
