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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving in unison. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still